Despite geopolitical turbulence, rising uncertainty in the Middle East, and mortgage rates climbing sharply, UK house prices have risen for the second consecutive month. If that surprises you, you are not alone — but the reasons behind it are entirely logical once you understand how the property market actually works.
Why House Prices Are Still Rising (Even Now)
The property market operates with a significant lag, and that is the key to understanding the current data. Nationwide — whose figures draw on mortgage lending across their entire portfolio, including Virgin Money and The Mortgage Works, the UK's largest buy-to-let lender — reported that house prices rose 0.4% in April, following an even stronger 0.9% rise in March. On an annual basis, Nationwide is now recording price growth of 3%.
The reason those figures look healthy despite the current climate is straightforward: the buyers completing transactions right now are not people who decided to purchase last week. Many of them secured mortgage approvals back in November, December, and January, before the conflict with Iran began and before lenders increased rates. Some of those buyers locked in rates as low as 3.5%, and understandably, they were highly motivated to complete their purchases rather than return to a market where they might face rates closer to 4.5%. That pipeline of committed buyers, working their way through conveyancing, is what is holding prices up — for now.
What the Data Sources Tell Us — and Their Limitations
It is worth understanding that no single data source tells the complete story. Nationwide's figures reflect their own lending book. Halifax, which publishes its own monthly index, actually reported house prices falling last month — the opposite of Nationwide's reading. Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which captures every lender in the country alongside cash and auction purchases, carries a lag of roughly six months, making it less useful for timely investment decisions.
We also pay close attention to Rightmove's asking price data, because asking prices reveal seller sentiment. When new sellers enter the market with confident asking prices rather than desperate discounts, it signals that owners are not under financial pressure. That is largely what we have seen in recent years — sellers holding firm, which has helped prevent a sharper correction in values.
At PropertyAlert.uk, we aggregate live listings so that property investors like you can monitor emerging opportunities across the UK in real time, giving you an edge when market conditions shift quickly.
The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates — and the First Signs of Relief
When the conflict in the Middle East escalated, the SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) swap rate — the rate at which lenders borrow — jumped sharply, and mortgage products followed almost immediately, with many lenders increasing rates by around 1%. The Bank of England, however, held its base rate steady at its most recent meeting, offering some reassurance.
The Bank's own projections range considerably. In a worst-case scenario — should oil prices rise to around $130 per barrel and remain there — the Bank has indicated that up to five further rate increases could be necessary. On the other hand, their best-case scenario involves no increases over the coming year, which would allow swap rates to ease and lenders to become more competitive. We are already seeing early signs of that: Barclays has cut mortgage rates to below 4%, and we expect other lenders to follow in order to attract business during what is a quieter period for transaction volumes.
For those currently in the process of purchasing, it is worth noting that conveyancing timescales remain a significant factor in locking in a favourable rate. Using an efficient online conveyancing service such as Muve can help keep your transaction moving at pace, reducing the risk of a rate expiring before completion — a very real concern in the current environment.
What Comes Next for House Prices?
Nationwide themselves are candid about the outlook: whilst they are not predicting outright price falls, they do expect transaction volumes to slow as buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach. And that is entirely rational behaviour. If you believe that waiting another month might save you 1% on your mortgage rate, many buyers will choose to pause.
The two consecutive months of growth do, however, provide a meaningful buffer heading into the rest of 2026. Even if prices soften slightly in the months ahead, the annual figure would need to fall significantly before we move into negative territory for the year. For property investors with a medium to long-term outlook, the fundamentals — constrained housing supply, persistent rental demand, and wage growth that has outpaced house price inflation in real terms — remain broadly supportive.
Our Conclusion: Stay Informed, Act Strategically
The property market in 2026 demands more attention and more agility than ever before. Rates can move within days, and the window between mortgage approval and completion is a critical one. Whether you are a seasoned landlord reviewing your portfolio or a first-time investor assessing your entry point, staying close to the data is essential.
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